IT IS TOO EXPENSIVE FOR MUDAVADI TO QUIT ODM

(This article is not complete as yet…)

“The numbers are just that, quite, I do not truly see an extreme loss that can follow Mudavadi’s exit. This would be for two reasons. Mudavadi’s presence is credited to ODM. He is visible since he is in ODM. If he were to quit, he would disrobe himself the shining cloth that makes his shadow to count. As a person, he is not unassailably influential.”

There are plans to create an Odinga home within the Wanga region of Luhya land. This is a deliberate move by Odinga strategists to make the Luhya own the Odinga candidature. In part, this is a strategy designed in anticipation of the Mudavadi threat to quit ODM.

The move is calculated to imprint into the Luhya minds that actually, Odinga is a Luhya. Well, history goes to the same proof. The Sakwa sub clan within the Luo is descendant of a Luhya father. The relevance of this move goes to its ability to undermine Mudavadi’s grip on the Luhya vote. Or rather, his grip on the Luhya sub-clan that is likely to associate with him.

The Wanga, occupy an eminent role within the Luhya. It is credited with leadership and politicians often invoke reverence for Nabongo to endear themselves to the electorate. The feuds in the recent past as to the heir of the Nabongo throne is believed to be fueled by divergent political interests keen to obtain endorsement from the sub-clan king.

The Odinga strategists are believed to have identified a homestead within the Wanga region and there could be plans for the prime minister to be invited “home.”

As this is anticipated, the fight for the ODM ticket has gained extreme momentum. The point of departure being Mudavadi’s insistence that the presidential candidate for the party be picked by delegates at county levels whereas the Odinga faction insists that the matter be left for the National Conference.

Certainly, Mudavadi has his chances if his proposal was to be accepted. Delegates from regions where Odinga is perceived as a villain could occasion a protest vote to hand the party leader a defeat. Raila is certainly keen on the delegates from the Rift Valley as their absolute loyalty cannot be guaranteed. With Mudavadi sharing a blood bond with Kalenjin’s it is rightly feared that a support from this region could tilt the scales to his favor.

In all ways, Mudavadi is important to Odinga. He remains the only proof that Odinga can have an ally, and if he departs, the nation will question Odinga’s ways. It would be a proof to the mounting claims of dictatorial tendencies within ODM. It is immaterial with the proof has material substance or not. A Mudavadi exit would equally rob Raila quite some numbers in terms of votes.

The numbers are just that, quite, I do not truly see an extreme loss that can follow Mudavadi’s exit. This would be for two reasons. Mudavadi’s presence is credited to ODM. He is visible since he is in ODM. If he were to quit, he would disrobe himself the shining cloth that makes his shadow to count. As a person, he is not unassailably influential.

Consider the events 2002 where when he quit LDP to be a three month vice president, he could not even manage a hold of his own constituency and he ended up losing to Akaranga Moses. The lesson Mudavadi never learnt from that occurrence was the danger of delighting in groupie glory. In fact it appears that this is a devil that follows all Luhya kings. It is this confusion that made Musikari Kombo to be in parliament courtesy of a nomination and the exit of Moody Awori.

Unlike the other major communities in Kenya which can make collective political declarations, the Luhya are immensely riddled with internal strife and political leaders from the region can only claim to have the backing at best, of their sub-clans.

Mudavadi cannot claim this, he was unable to defeat Khalwale in the by election with the ODM candidate loosing. With voters at his door step unable to listen to him, it would be a lie if he prided in the Luhya Court.

The pollsters equally show that overall, within the western region, Raila has a higher approval. I bet this could be attributed to the Teso factor and the fact that the lower western is likely to lean to Odinga easily than Mudavadi.

I imagine the despair within his camp. With Ford-Kenya effectively in the hands of Wetangula and New Ford Kenya in the hands of Wamalwa, Mudavadi does not have a vehicle that would easily appeal to the Luhya. A dissect of the New Ford Kenya after it was rumored that he was in talks with its leadership showed mixed reactions.

Entrepreneurial officials would see a Mudavadi entry as a financial boost to the party, but if the party would wish to have any viable bargaining power in the imminent alliance arithmetic, it would be prudent to retain Wamalwa. A Wamalwa presence is politically significant than Mudavadi. Well, this would simply be because the Bukusu sub clan is the largest, and with the strategic elevation of Wamalwa to the Justice Docket, and the almost demotion of Wetangula to the less lucrative Trade docket, makes him quite a better bet.

There will be considerable discomfort between Eugene and Mudavadi were the latter to opt joining New FORD KENYA. Wamalwa to this extend could be a compromise candidate for the G7 brigade. It is unlikely that either Uhuru or Ruto would be on the ballot, and the duo will certainly be comfortable with a Wamalwa presidency. With such prospects, it is unlikely that Wamalwa might comfortably admit Mudavadi’s entry.

The insistence of Mudavadi on the change of a clause handing the party leader is a legitimate excuse but it could be entrenched in an obnoxious strategy. Mudavadi wants to be president, but what would be his chances beyond 2012.

May be his is just a realization that beyond 2012 the crafting of politics would be different; in fact hard for him. The threat of the ambitious new breed of politicians must have made Musalia to know that his fair chances lie in the moment and that those chances would even be enhanced if he trounced Odinga and got his backing.

Another presumption would be to believe the peddling of the Odinga faction that the G7 has warmed up to him and as such he exiting to justify a reunion. Wait a minute, this thought looks endearing, and the G8 would then be a reunion of sons of KANU. It would be Ruto, Uhuru, Mudavadi, Kalonzo all sons of the independent party. In fact Mudavadi stuck with Uhuru and Ruto in 2002 when there was a revolt in KANU and he was even handed the vice presidency.

He is moderate, rarely attacking the G7 in fact he has at times warned his boss against making “inflammatory remarks” when Odinga attacked the Ocampo 2. But I cannot see the possibility of the G7 unanimously handing him a ticket.

Well, what would Mudavadi’s decision to quit ODM mean to him as a person?

From the onset, it would rob him the luminance of the party and he would have a tough, really tough task of identifying a platform that would give him the limelight as his ODM deputy party leader tag does. With Odinga running impatient by time, he risks being stripped off his ministerial tag and he would suffer the Balala fate, you hit the limelight as you cry foul and then the country forgets you.

Mudavadi’s exit from ODM could spell his ultimate exit from political relevance. I would suppose, he only has two fair chances, stick by Odinga and be his running mate and then package himself for a post Odinga contest or lodge a truly tough fight within the ODM, wrestle the party ticket off  Raila’s grasp and contest the presidency.

Whatever move he makes, he has to be keen with time and the attitude of the electorate. But with his main base infested by dissidence, riddled with multiple battles of supremacy, he would be advised to stick within ODM and fight it out.

MY CONVICTION, MY STORY

GIVEN WITHIN THE PRELIMINARY LAUNCH OF CAMPAIGNS-KU

ON THE TRAIL

 

 

Well, I bet this must be the reasons; the beliefs of status quo are weaker than my hopes. The fear of tradition is unable to shake my conviction. The beliefs I hold that everyone has a sacred right to their ambition, that if God has gifted you a will, you deserve to express it unhindered, that if you believe in your abilities, you deserve to be judged as deserving. These are truths founded in my heart. Things I am willing to pay with my life to preserve. Things, which if I relinquished, I would have betrayed my God, myself, my society and thousands who have chosen to invest their “faith in me.”

Those who have ever interacted with me know one thing; I express my convictions with the weaves of my fingers. In a short while, I will be vying for Student President, Kenyatta University. I feel obliged to explain my candidature to you my friends who every day give me a new reason to forge ahead.

This is since, my candidature in itself, is a defiance of norms. And yes, that defiance is what I have to explain. Because, as a nation, we are accustomed to some assumptions, and when those assumptions are to be challenged, a candid explanation has to be put forth; lest, we raffle our comfort zones without a substantiated underpinning.

Kenyan politics revolve around the following: Tribal or regional caucusing, Sycophancy, Money, Sensationalized promises, religion and hooliganism. This is reflected with perfect semblance in Universities. It is a near impossibility for you to underpin your candidature on any other bases other than these.

It amazes me to see how tribal groupings emerge with strengthened vigor when elections are about. How Tribal councils drown the ambitions of others so as not to split “our people’s Votes.” How ethnic alliances emerge to propel ambitions of the witty. It amazes me, to see the young swept by ethnic invocations and what have you. Regional semblance reemerge with renewed emphasis and the ghost of our differences haunt our unity for the sake of politicians.

Creations of royalty emerge. The ambitious opt to worship authorities to be granted immunity or express support. Sycophancy, complacency, indifference to the plight of those who give us mandate are encouraged by those who need not to be inconvenienced by a pestering leadership. The ambitions of the independent minded are killed in technicalities.

The centrality of money as the scale tilter can never be felt with greater prominence. Politicians who have silent interests invest heavily in student elections. As such student unions, trade conscience and become agents of sectarian mentalities. You can now explain why that part of the society that was once an awesome check to societal excesses is characterized by violence and billows of smoke on streets.

But the most amazing art is how trivia is used to drown sense; the interplay of propaganda at the expense of policies. It is never surprising for a candidate to be tagged a Satanist, or a lady candidate to be slapped with multiple abortion allegations, or moderates to be tagged “Admin-projects”, or homosexuality tendencies to be smirked on ones back.

I come from a minority tribe in Kenya; I would never say my family is a royalty. It would be fantasy. I am a second year, termed junior within the realms of schooling. A firm abhor of propaganda, a person of perfect inflexibility in regard to their principles.

I have been told, a Kenyan in Rome must act as Romans, if not for anything then to belong. That I will be unable to wade political waters if I stick to my independent mindedness, that at some point, I will have to commission bigotry unless I don’t value my ambition. That I will have to do regional bargains, that my ambition will be subjected to tribal considerations. Even before the onset of campaigns, those who know the iron will within me have thrown multiple propaganda against me.

Some have told me, to face, that it is a chase after the wind. That a second year, a Teso, a person from humble backgrounds, a person unwilling to use propaganda, a person unable to sit on a table and engage in tribal negotiations, cannot make it.

Many wonder, why up to today, the acceptance I have amongst students is inexplicable. Why a hold onto reason could start to be endearing. How, a heart smirked by so many odds is still able and willing to scale the waters.

Well, I bet this must be the reasons; the beliefs of status quo are weaker than my hopes. The fear of tradition is unable to shake my conviction. The beliefs I hold that everyone has a sacred right to their ambition, that if God has gifted you a will, you deserve to express it unhindered, that if you believe in your abilities, you deserve to be judged as deserving. These are truths founded in my heart. Things I am willing to pay with my life to preserve. Things, which if I relinquished, I would have betrayed my God, myself, my society and thousands who have chosen to invest their faith in me.

That is the will that gives me the propulsion to face tomorrow. And this conviction has ability to create a wave that tradition cannot withstand. I chose to seek University Presidency as a defence of what I believe should be the criteria of determining leadership in my generation. A defence that everyone, male or female, Kikuyu, Luo, Meru. Kalenjin or Teso, Rich or poor, Muslim or Christian, Teacher or lawyer have a right to their ambition.

I choose to seek the university Presidency to tell this Institution, to tell Kenya, to tell the world that it takes a belief to occasion a paradigm shift, that as a people, Kenyans are too brave to be chained to the fear of the obvious or the unknown. And that in my generation, tribe, money or propaganda will cease to be determiners as to who becomes what. And that if no else is willing to take the plunge, I LONE FELIX, is willing to take that risk. That I understand that it is my obligation to be the difference I desire.

As such, I confirm the fears of my competitors, that if you are an agent of status quo, you will be unable to survive this race; that unless your candidature is centered on student interest, you took the plunge at the wrong time. That if you think you will ride on tribe or regional supremacy certainly you will not survive this fight. Our altars of leadership must be cleansed, and I have a will and desire to cleanse it. Or to put it more rightly, I will cleanse it.

Why the certainty you ask?  It is because my story espouses our collective aspirations. Aspirations that cowards have buried to further their ambitions. Aspirations whose time has come.

LOOK BEYOND THE FRUSTRATIONS OF THE MOMENT

The world is sometimes frustrating. When we need our strength most, time offers us weakness, when we need good health, season offers us illness. It reaches a time, when our prayers bounce off the skies, when our sincerest of all wishes fail to pass.
Why would it appear that the best things in life fail or come to an end rather quickly? Why would it be that the clearest of our dreams get blurred in the uncertainties of this world?

I would like you to take time and imagine this world. A world where there are no tears. A world where we wake up to a morning symphony of joyous laughter as opposed to the hues of desperation we are accustomed to. A morning where the sun breaks in abundance and we have no reason to go and seek daily provisions. Where our wishes come to be in a click of a moment. A morning where I would become a lawyer without dragging my tired body through the intricacies of books, where if a cancer is detected in my brain it melts away at my wish. Imagine this. To me, this would be a fathomless desert.

There would be no event in life, no substance of struggle, no taste of a sweat, no feeling of a Victory. The world would be an unadventurous trail of tradition, where there are no ills to surmount or no hills to overcome. It would be a plain, with no fears and an no anxieties.

These dark aspects of life shape its substance. When you wake up and your computer fails, and you have to format all the data you cherish, and reinstall an operating system, the data is lost, but you achieve one thing, the Knowledge that even if my computer fails, I can still live on. If you visit your doctor for a routine Check, and he tells you he has seen a dent on your heart, your fears of losing a life abound, but you achieve to realize one thing, that even with a dent on your heart, the sun does not fail to rise.

If you wake up, and the country’s leadership is in a mess, and you think your state is the worst in the world, time is but offering you a chance to be the change you want. Life makes the glory of light less obvious, because unless we meet darkness, we risk taking light for granted. Life affords us tears because it is when our eyes are dried, that we appreciate the comfort of love, joy and peace.

We are afforded trials, because surmounting a trial sweetens Victory. Nowhere in the world, has calm resided with profoundness than in the ports of storms. I mean we understand the peculiarity of calm when we have faced storms. We appreciate the value of shelter when we get drenched in the rains of trouble.

God in his greatness has given you the gift of autonomous thinking, this only means, that holding our thoughts in liberty is the most sacred Act of worship we can give the heavens. And in his graciousness, He allows you to create yourself with your thoughts. Even if circumstances chain you, liberate your mind; behold success and success you will become. When you are chained by fears of uncertainty, liberate your conscience and allow it to take strength in conviction. Be brave and pursue your desires, through the fears of failure and the impediments of lack. The Glory of success is amplified by how difficult it was to reach it.

CAGED BY AMBITION: WHY ODINGA’S PRESIDENCY MIGHT NOT OFFER MUCH

ODINGA WIPES A TEAR, FRUSTRATED BY A FRAUD HIT ELECTIONS

“Raila appears as largely inconclusive, incapable of being an effective manager as you would expect the next Chief Executive to be. With mega and ambitious projects hitting the economy, you need a president who yes, is politically responsive, but equally has the organizational capacity to hold all the facets of the country in coordination.  Odinga might be lacking this.”


 

A caption of a desperately irate Odinga has done multiple circulations on the internet. The man was literally crying when he saw the presidency snatched from his jaws. He has been chastised by his opponents, but only they that do not know the cost of an ambition would fail to excuse his tears. Losing a presidency, no, being snatched off a presidency would touch the core of a man, excusably; it would bring anyone to tears.

Raila Amolo Odinga is a name that both foe and friend concede to its magnanimity. You would call him an Enigma, indeed the man has been a mystery. Emerging, into prominence as a pro reform democrat, accepting to be caged six times in the struggle for political pluralism,

and later, as if to show that he was the figurative TINGA, leaving a trail of destruction as he ascended into becoming Kenya’s most influential politician.

I doubt whether Kenya shall ever get a man both adored and hated in the same measure. A man you will hate to admit that he is influential. Whose statements shake the core of the Kenyan politics?

But in all these, how true has Odinga’s quest been to the tenets he proclaims to hold?  Has the intricate of politics sapped the passion of reform in this man to let him become a mere agent of convenience? Would Raila today, accept to be detained for Democracy?

After the annihilation of FORD-K, Raila moved out to form NDP on whose ticket he contended for the Presidency in 1997. The 1997 was the first election where the KANU absolutism was largely diluted. The then President, MOI knew for his to survive, he would have to merge with the opposition in a way.

Of all persons, Moi sought the company of Odinga. A man he had wanted to sap life out of him, but the strangest of all things, Odinga accepted, and NDP merged with KANU to give the government a lifeline in parliament. Raila became the Secretary General of the cockerel party and a minister of Energy then. The opposition felt betrayed, Moi felt relieved, Raila felt strategic.

As the 2002 elections drew closer, Moi realized the prominence Odinga had assumed. He would be a true contender of the Presidency. This could not be allowed. And Uhuru was nominated as an MP and elevated to be both a minister of Local Government and one of the four deputy chairmen of KANU. Finally, there came the declaration; Uhuru would be Moi’s favored successor.

The man, Raila, occasioned a mass exodus. There came the Liberal Democratic Party, which had all the KANU trusted lieutenants, Kalonzo who for over a decade had been the Foreign Affairs minister charged with spicing the hideous image of the regime, Saitoti, Kenya’s longest serving VP. KANU was brought to its knees.

LDP would later merge with N

AK to form the rainbow Euphoria NARC. Then the Uhuru park Declaration of Kibaki Tosha; this annihilated KANU and handed Kibaki the presidency. Then, Wamalwa coined, Railaphobia, a phenomena that captured the extend Odinga’s presence elicited fear.

True, opponents of Raila can only be relatively at ease when he speaks. He is a man shrouded in suspicion, a man whose purest of intention would be scrutinized to the tiniest of its fibers.

Pollsters have rightly placed him as a front runner in the forthcoming elections. Haunted by endless fallouts with allies now turned foes, maintaining the lead must have been the toughest of all assignments.

But, as a man, would Odinga be a good president? Would his presidency deliver the expectations that it is likely to bring forth. Is Odinga a reformist by heart or just a smart politician who sings tunes, sweetest to the electorate’s ear?

It would be ungrateful of someone of my generation to chide his eminent role in democratizing Kenya. But equally, he could bear considerable blame in scuttling the very democracy. Clearly, history says that he stands out, but if occurrences in the recent past are anything to go by, Odinga is a pale shadow of his principled self. He comes forth as a man, keen on realizing an ambition rather than deliver anything substantial to the country.

The Prime Minister Raila Odingtion

Whereas no criminal responsibility has been attached to him, it is prudent to note that ODM in 2007 was never an idea based party, but a conglomerate of interests, largely personal. And that ODM’s approach to the election to a greater extent was founded on “ethnic feelings.” It brought forth those who were striving to regain relevance after being relegated into the cold by the 2002 revolution and those who intended to hand Kibaki a defeat for biting the hand that fed it.

The greatest card on the table was tribal. I would view the pentagon as a group of tribal or regional heads with no compatibility of ideas designed to ensure regions felt like they owned the ODM and would therefore own the presidency. This lack of ideology serves as the greatest reason for the speedy disintegration of the camaraderie.

ODM’s composition betrays what it purported to stand for.  In fact, ODM, in 2007 never embodied any possibility of change whatsoever. It had Ruto, an YK92 baron who took comfort in the bosom of power while reformists strained to liberate the country, Dalmas Otieno, Henry Kosgey, Musalia Mudavadi all trusted lieutenants in the Moi regime.

This would only point to one thing; Raila is capable of joining hands with however, as long as his chances are furthered. Otherwise, why would Carol Omondi, be such a trusted lieutenant when he was against reforms as part of the YK92.

Today, Raila Odinga’s official facebook page has these words boldly embodied, “CHANGE IS COMING”. This is a fallacy, the best Odinga can offer today is continuity, not change. He has the baggage of incumbency and the failures of the coalition government lie as strongly on him as they do on Kibaki.

Born within the ruling elite, he is a master of the art of governance, and after the miscarriage in 2007; he became even an ardent disciple of the lessons of power. He understood that you negotiate for power not just with the masses, but with the instruments that tilt “real power.”

He has done this pretty well, look at the Prime Minister’s round table with manufacturers and industry heads deliberate to dispel notions that he was a socialist who would infringe on tenets of free enterprise and threaten private investment. It is understood, that one thing that could have embolden the regime in 2007 was the fact that Kibaki was in the “good books” of the moneyed in the country.

The greatest concern though would be Odinga’s ability to deliver in the new dispensation. While he accuses his opponents of being incapable to work with a constitution they opposed, he has not come forth as an objective defender of the document save where he has a chance to flex his power as a result of; “in consultation with the prime minister” provision.

Before postulating on an Odinga presidency, let us regard his performance as a Prime Minister. While this gives him the status of a principal, we appreciate that all things were against him. Largely Odinga has maintained his role as the opposition. Sometimes his efforts have hit by sabotage from the PNU camp, but to date, he might be incapable of having anything to show as a Prime Minister.

His office has prominently featured in the Mau Conservation efforts, Kazi Kwa Vijana Initiative and the Elder care initiatives. While the Elder people care initiative has realized a reasonable success, the other two have not.

The Kazi Kwa Vijana initiative was dogged by multiple claims of inefficiency. While his office was absolved from any misappropriation, the fact that the program has not realized its intentions stands out. While his stance on Mau earned him credit as a man who would sacrifice his political fortunes for a noble cause, time has eroded this assumption. He actually succumbed to the fear of being tagged anti-Kalenjin and has dragged in the later stage of ridding the tower off invaders.

His involvement in national strikes have largely flopped, may be since he lacked capacity, in terms of proposing a comprehensive solution, but this serves to make him appear as incapable of offering conclusive leadership.

Raila appears as largely inconclusive, incapable of being an effective manager as you would expect the next Chief Executive to be. With mega and ambitious projects hitting the economy, you need a president who yes, is political responsive, but equally has the organizational capacity to hold all the facets of the country in coordination.  Odinga lacks this.

The scandals that have hit his ODM faction of the government, The Maize Scandal, The abuse of Power charges facing Henry Kosgey, The inefficiency in the ministry of Immigration point a finger to a principal who did not know who was in his camp.

I am almost certain, that if Odinga was to taken out of the picture, the office of the Prime Minister would almost be nonexistent. He is a man bigger that the institution, a description that could betray the expectations of the new Constitution.

Odinga, just like the entire ruling elite, is accustomed to a freehand executive. That would explain his demonstrable discomfort with a biting legislature. In the new constitution, all presidential prerogatives as subject to; either, “approval of the National assembly, or would be exercised in accordance with advise from certain committees or commissions.”

As such, for an effective functioning government, you would need a president capable of appreciating this autonomy and able to non-combatively create a working relationship with the other organs. Hi tendencies to pick fights with the legislature and judiciary could see executive efforts frustrated and as such government operations crippled.

This trait attaches to Uhuru. He equally has an amazing discomfort when the parliament flexes its muscle.

While Raila is likely to protect the Constitution, the reality of being president in the new dispensation, the person who time and tradition has shaped Odinga to become, and the expectations of time could conspire to wretch his presidency.

And say, if Raila wins the presidency, it is almost a certainty that he would be eying a second term. He has spend these five years making political calculations, he could do just that again, a first five year term of combative politics; without much to deliver.

SOMEONE ELSE OTHER THAN ODINGA WANTS UHURU IN THE DOCKS

A call into Oblivion, the Deputy Prime Minister could be a target by those close to him

 “I can only make two conclusions, either they know that he is indisputably guilty and any such attempts will be futile, or there is someone, within the center of power who is deliberately instituting these abortions with a view of getting Uhuru out of the way. That person is not Odinga; he is within the Kibaki circle. A man who knows the law, knows the ICC and knows how to get Uhuru out of the way, in fact, he has.

If ever, there can be something as strong hitting, is the possibility of an international court slapping you with charges capable of sweeping you, and your ambition into oblivion. Upon the Ocampo announcement, the president as expected addressed the nation. He gave a couple directions, to ensure that the process would not erode Kenya’s sovereignty. He appealed for calm, yet I know just like my naïve instincts told me, he also knew that the announcement was incapable of bringing forth any form of violence.

Knowing that he had become a suspect, Uhuru sought the best of legal representation, in an attempt to exonerate himself. The principal statute in matters of the ICC is the Rome Statute. Quite a liberal document I would say; liberal in that it allows considerable options and time, to a greater extent making the ICC a last resort court.

The fact that the ICC is a political court is not in dispute. Indeed, there is rarely any absolute independence of any court anywhere in the world. The ICC operates in a delicate environment, it has to balance global interests and ensure it remains as independent as possible. In fact, the Rome Statute gives consideration to many other facts other than justice in determining matters before it.

Within the statute, there are provisions say, where the United Nations Security Council, could seek a postponement of the case, if its continuance would risk regional stability. A look at this would suggest therefore, that irrespective of the fact that a crime has been committed, if genuinely, regional stability would be compromised in case the court continues its pursuit of the suspect, a temporary halt would be placed on the process.

The Prime Minister may want his deputy so badly out, but what is burying Uhuru is beyond his making

Indeed, Kenya appears to have made frantic efforts to try and salvage the infamous Ocampo six. But in my view, these were mistakes, in fact deliberate mistakes to ensure that the Ocampo six find themselves into the ICC.

There came attempts to establish a local tribunal. Well meant efforts by the then Justice minister, Hon. Martha Karua would have ensured that the Ocampo six never set foot in The Hague. This would be a local mechanism. The constitution had not been passed; the judiciary was filled by presidential appointees and susceptible to manipulation, this would have been an easy avenue to being absolved from the blame.

I believe the fear for a local tribunal was fuelled by the independence with which the Waki led inquiry into the post election violence carried its work. Then they undertook a fatal political move to frustrate the formation of the tribunal. Remotely this was founded on an assumption that the ICC would take such a lengthy time.

This assumption was the most naïve of all steps. Looking at the interests that scuttled the dual efforts, both by the minister and Hon. Imanyara, it was a deliberate misleading by the Kenyatta and Ruto cronies or the vocal Mps who shouted, don’t be “Vague go to Hague” were agents of doom, paid to kill the ambitions of these two.

Then Ocampo set in, and the President sent out his deputy to Marshall political support from various African and non African states to compel a postponement through the Security Council. This was a bluff. Having been a foreign Affairs Minister for almost a decade, and a lawyer, Kalonzo certainly knew that his efforts were going to be fruitless, but at least not entirely. He would earn a tag of an ardent protector of the interests of the Ocampo six, but in the ultimate, when the inevitable happened and they would have been hauled into the docks, he would go back to their supporters and seek their votes.

Unfortunately, this will never be for Musyoka. The political clout of the African Union is insignificant to influence the Security Council’s involvement in the Kenyan case. More importantly, most African countries are patronized by western countries to even think of putting their interests on line for Sang or Uhuru.

Then there were the Attorney General applications to seek a referral of the cases to a local mechanism. Before this stab was taken, a Constitution had been passed, in making the applications, the government sought to demonstrate that institutionally, the country had been empowered to have the capacity to handle the cases. This was a departure, a deliberate one, I suppose from the central reason why the ICC had intervened.

The ICC involvement in the Kenyan case was not as a result of inability of our institutional framework to handle the case but manifest unwillingness to investigate the matter. In fact the prosecutor admitted this in the preliminary stages. The Rome statute does not make reference to institutional ability; it requires that a request for a Referral be premised on the government’s showing, that the same people are being investigated, on the same matter. Instead of the government focusing to show what the law requires, it chose to play a different tune that ensured the failure of the appeal.

There then were the crucial appointments of person’s to fill the positions of the Chief Justice, AG and the DPP. Knowing the crucial role these appointees would play, the president mistakenly chose to ignore the Prime Minister. A constitutional storm was kicked off, this saw the president humiliated and he chose to withdraw the names of his appointees.

The naivety of his actions created the greatest grave for Uhuru. It allowed the Judicial Service Commission to come into play and the Judiciary was handed to the independent Hon. Willy Mutunga. This is the greatest grave ever handed to the ambition of Kenyatta. It is greater than the UN Security Council, it rested from the elite a chance of controlling the Judiciary and allowed a real threat to their interests.

Uhuru might have banged the table fighting for Githu Muigai to become an AG. What he did not know is that an Attorney General is but a government advisor whose role in the judiciary has been gravely diminished by the constitution.

When the President directs the AG to form a panel of eminent lawyers to advise the government on what to do, is just but another attempt that is inconsequential.

The clearest of all attempts toensure the four are firmly in the jaws of ICC is the stage managing of this UK dossier on attempts to indict Kibaki once he is out of the office. I don’t know the truth in the claim, but I would opine that the document is a fake, written by agents around presidency. It is likely that the Yatta MP, Kilonzo person could have been handed a handsome consideration to table it in parliament.

My aspersions are built on the fact that, how long it would take the NSIS or the CID to ask Kilonzo where he got the document. He was not handed by an angel; neither did he print it out from a website. Why would a parliamentary committee wish to question the President before questioning the MP who tabled the document in parliament?

The Promotion of Eugene Wamalwa is a spear that could stab Uhuru into Oblivion.

My assumptions would be, this is a strategy to divert attention from the misfortune facing Uhuru. And they have almost achieved it. The two, Kibaki and Uhuru draw their support from a similar base. Allowing their supporters to passionately consider the plight of another person, other than Uhuru, diffuses tension and possibly ensures that Uhuru will not be largely missed when he “leaves.” It is inconsequential to Britain whether Kibaki goes to Casablanca after his tenure or if he is taken to ICC for post election violence or if Mutunga starts a case against him for the multiple extra judicial killings on Mungiki under his presidency. It is unlikely that he would be a threat to Britain’s interests and this is out rightly a gimmick.

The tough question therefore becomes why would this move be created. I opine it is intended to create hostility against the ICC by the government for threatening an action against the president hence justify non cooperation by the government and while this may serve to deny access to crucial evidence, it ensures that the ICC will pursue the Kenyan cases at The Hague as referral initiatives are bound to be futile.

And the last nail on Uhuru-Ruto coffin was the promotion of Eugene Wamalwa. This I would look at it from different views.

Certainly, the international community is monitoring developments in Kenya closely. Why would the president move the Minister of justice just days to the setting up of trial chambers in the ICC; this when the last option to salvage the situation would have presented itself.

After the setting up of the trial chamber, Kenya had an opportunity to petition for a referral. I believe this would have been possible save for this deliberate abortion by the reshuffle. The reshuffle serves to cement the impression that the government is determined to scuttle the process by placing allies in key institutions. This after the ICC kept complaining of the frustration by the government. This act, assures the suspects one thing, a place in the ICC.

On the other hand, which wisdom is there in the placing of the ambitious Wamalwa to head the Justice Ministry? Certainly Wamalwa knows that he can be a great beneficiary of the Uhuru-Ruto exit. He only needs to keep appearing with them in public rallies and using his key position to slow down government quests.

Then the inconsequential GEMA get together which resolved to collect 2 million signatures to push for a postponement.  Again this can be construed as whooping of ethnic emotions, which construction I believe would be true. What is GEMA, it is neither the government, not party to the suit and not a friend of the court. Whoever advised Uhuru to go to Limuru has a single agenda, to make him sink as possible into the ICC den.

Hon Cecil Mbarire at the GEMA meeting in Limuru

Why these series of multiple mistakes and guffaws? Why would a government miss so many opportunities to salvage its sons if it truly intends to. All the key institutions are in the hands of Kibaki Allies. The police, the NSIS, the CID, the AG and what have you. Why would these institutions be so reluctant to help Uhuru salvage his shot at the presidency? Why would Uhuru be in such multiple mistakes when he is surrounded by advisers.

I can only make two conclusions, either they know that he is indisputably guilty and any such attempts will be futile, or there is someone, within the center of power who is deliberately instituting these abortions with a view of getting Uhuru out of the way. That person is not Odinga; he is within the Kibaki circle. A man who knows the law, knows the ICC and knows how to get Uhuru out of the way, in fact, he has.

If I were Uhuru, I would relook at my trusted sympathizers. It could be a tale of, “kikulacho ki nguoni”